hengli wrote:ashOck wrote:Grocoloco wrote:Why most people have a wrong understanding of how drop rate, or statistics, work? If, let's say, Salus had a 10% drop rate it doesn't mean that you're gonna get his card on the 10th pull, it means that every pull you do you have a 10% chance of getting him, so it is possible you get his card on 1st pull or 100th pull, it's just less probable that the latter will happen, majority will be somewhere in the middle of that.
Same with people claiming this or that hero had lower drop rates, you can't even claim that without a large enough population to measure.
Or maybe we believe the drop rate has changed and are sharing our personal data to let you know why we believe this is so. We understand that one person getting it on the first pull and another taking ten pulls is the luck of the draw and that the percent chance has not changed. But when someone, like me, gets three heroes to five stars (Mirelle, Tsuki, Sarya) for about 4 to 7k diamonds in the time frame around four months ago... and then barely gets Hurok for 4k diamonds and takes over 12k to get Salus to five stars, one might be led to believe that the odds have changed for the worst. So I might go into my LINE chat for the guild and find that similar results are occurring. Then I might go onto my server chat and find the same. Not one person is getting five stars for 7k or less... maybe only four stars. Some did not pull Hurok or Salus for 5k diamonds. So that is the basis of our belief that maybe the odds have worsened.
Now what is the basis of your post that "most people" have a wrong understanding of... Are you arguing that the drop rates have not changed. If so, does your data include your guild and then your server data or a larger sampling?
Few players are not a sample size big enough to prove your statement, if you consider that the game has thousands of players your bad RNG and the same of few players doesn't prove that the drop-rate is worst or better than before.
Many players get CS heroes and Box Heroes with one chest pull, if I use this kind of player to talk about the drop rate don't you think it wouldn't make any sense? It's the same thing that you are doing.
ashOck wrote:But speculating is just that. So, Hengli (and Groco), strengthen your case by finding a player that got five stars for Hurok or Salus for 7k or less.
KemosabeTBC wrote:ashOck wrote:But speculating is just that. So, Hengli (and Groco), strengthen your case by finding a player that got five stars for Hurok or Salus for 7k or less.
Page 2 in this thread, I provived screenshots. Also I never managed to get a box hero to 5* with 7k diamonds, ever.
ashOck wrote:I also still believe the drop rate is worse based on strong empirical data from guildmates and server chats. We will not resolve whether the drop rate is the same of worse here.
But if a large number of players believe the drop rate of SS is worse, then there is a problem for Lilith. So I challenge Hengli still to ask Lilith directly if the drop rate has changed at all or always been the same. That will settle it and if the rate is the same, I and others will feel better about the game and Lilith.