I got salus to 4* spending less than 3k diamonds, i just do it coz of spender events on zem and cara for 3k hehehe

hengli wrote:

ashOck wrote:

Grocoloco wrote:

Why most people have a wrong understanding of how drop rate, or statistics, work? If, let's say, Salus had a 10% drop rate it doesn't mean that you're gonna get his card on the 10th pull, it means that every pull you do you have a 10% chance of getting him, so it is possible you get his card on 1st pull or 100th pull, it's just less probable that the latter will happen, majority will be somewhere in the middle of that.
Same with people claiming this or that hero had lower drop rates, you can't even claim that without a large enough population to measure.

Or maybe we believe the drop rate has changed and are sharing our personal data to let you know why we believe this is so. We understand that one person getting it on the first pull and another taking ten pulls is the luck of the draw and that the percent chance has not changed. But when someone, like me, gets three heroes to five stars (Mirelle, Tsuki, Sarya) for about 4 to 7k diamonds in the time frame around four months ago... and then barely gets Hurok for 4k diamonds and takes over 12k to get Salus to five stars, one might be led to believe that the odds have changed for the worst. So I might go into my LINE chat for the guild and find that similar results are occurring. Then I might go onto my server chat and find the same. Not one person is getting five stars for 7k or less... maybe only four stars. Some did not pull Hurok or Salus for 5k diamonds. So that is the basis of our belief that maybe the odds have worsened.

Now what is the basis of your post that "most people" have a wrong understanding of... Are you arguing that the drop rates have not changed. If so, does your data include your guild and then your server data or a larger sampling?

Few players are not a sample size big enough to prove your statement, if you consider that the game has thousands of players your bad RNG and the same of few players doesn't prove that the drop-rate is worst or better than before.

Many players get CS heroes and Box Heroes with one chest pull, if I use this kind of player to talk about the drop rate don't you think it wouldn't make any sense? It's the same thing that you are doing.

Thank you hengli that explains it better. Ashock I understand what you are talking about, I also got crappy luck with Tsuki back then, as of now I still don't own him because I ran out of diamonds. If we actually had large amounts of data (players) from multiple box/CS event heroes to compare we could determine if drop rates are consistent or not. Right now any claim is based on anecdotal data and feelings that don't carry any weight. It's like if I said "smoking doesn't cause lung cancer" just because I and a group of people smoke and don't have lung cancer. In the end I believe the system isn't rigged, none of us can prove anything right now, but because I know that's how statistics/chance work I choose to believe it's just luck.

I know that small sample sizes are less reliable, especially when the population is large. But this is not a "I got the card on one draw..." This is a larger one of getting to five stars, or acquiring another 250 SS after getting the card. And there is a consistency that the SS are dropping less since it is taking a lot more diamonds for a lot of players to acquire them. Getting 3 there for 5 to 7 K then not even reaching 4 stars (100 SS) for that amount in the last two heroes is the beginning of good evidence. If it were pure RNG, then others will have had to spend 12k for one of the three easier heroes months ago and now maybe get one of the last two for 5 to 7 k. I know of no cases of this. Everyone is sharing that it is taking more diamonds to get the SS. These are spenders I am talking about.

But speculating is just that. So, Hengli (and Groco), strengthen your case by finding a player that got five stars for Hurok or Salus for 7k or less. Hengli, you can do better: you have a direct line of communication to Lilith. Ask them point blank if the odds of getting the box event (ancient chests) SS rates has changed at all in the last eight months. Accept nothing less than "It has not changed." There is a fair amount of players sensing that it has worsened, making us less happy with the game (and causing some to quit). So if the truth is that it is the same, you would be doing the players and Lilith a favor using their word that no changes were ever made to the drop rate.

ashOck wrote:

But speculating is just that. So, Hengli (and Groco), strengthen your case by finding a player that got five stars for Hurok or Salus for 7k or less.

Page 2 in this thread, I provided screenshots. Also I never managed to get a box hero to 5* with 7k diamonds, ever.

KemosabeTBC wrote:

ashOck wrote:

But speculating is just that. So, Hengli (and Groco), strengthen your case by finding a player that got five stars for Hurok or Salus for 7k or less.

Page 2 in this thread, I provived screenshots. Also I never managed to get a box hero to 5* with 7k diamonds, ever.

Okay, I concede that some received the 5 stars for around 7k (there is one on another Salus thread that is two SS short of 5* for 7K too). I also still believe the drop rate is worse based on strong empirical data from guildmates and server chats. We will not resolve whether the drop rate is the same of worse here.

But if a large number of players believe the drop rate of SS is worse, then there is a problem for Lilith. So I challenge Hengli still to ask Lilith directly if the drop rate has changed at all or always been the same. That will settle it and if the rate is the same, I and others will feel better about the game and Lilith.

ashOck wrote:

I also still believe the drop rate is worse based on strong empirical data from guildmates and server chats. We will not resolve whether the drop rate is the same of worse here.

My initial reaction was the same, after I spent 4k diamonds just to get a card. But when I started to read other people's reactions I saw that maybe I was commiting the same fallacy that I accused others of doing.

But if a large number of players believe the drop rate of SS is worse, then there is a problem for Lilith. So I challenge Hengli still to ask Lilith directly if the drop rate has changed at all or always been the same. That will settle it and if the rate is the same, I and others will feel better about the game and Lilith.

I don't think anything has changed, and Hengli will probably tell you that it hasn't. But, regardless, my personal opinion is that the drop rates are bad, although they are clearly better than the conjuring stone.